2025 Corn Belt Planting Weather Outlook
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Confidence levels in predicting April planting weather this year are fleeting due to a weak La Niña that is likely heading toward neutral as planters roll.
Forecasted initially to arrive last summer, this January’s arrival of the Pacific Ocean’s La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index lacks its usual strength to deliver a more predictable northern U.S. cold and southern warm and dry climate.
Come early March, DTN Meteorologist John Baranick says current weather models show colder than normal conditions that could stretch into spring to slow soil warmup. Similar delays could happen in the Ohio Valley due to excessive moisture.
“Once we look further into April through June, there’s currently no agreement across the weather models,” he says. “They suggest a warmer and drier second half to spring, but confidence is currently fleeting at best.”
Similar analog years
When developing an outlook, DTN combines similar historical (analog) years with weather models to base a forecast. Not finding a good stable of weather years where a weak La Niña moved to a neutral position by planting, they shifted to finding similar summer patterns during 2018, 2006, and 2001.
Unfortunately, these three years lack a good, consistent pattern. “The spring of 2018 had a colder La Niña signature with a wet eastern half of the Corn Belt. In 2006, a neutral ENSO was warmer, with decent rainfall across the Corn Belt. And 2001 featured pockets of cold and warm temperatures scattered across the Corn Belt, with some drought in the north,” Baranick says.
Finding no solid correlation among these analog years means it is difficult to look at the past and predict the future. “Each spring’s weather is different, so we’ll be more reliant on the models as we get closer to planting,” he adds.
Forecast accuracy
Given La Niña’s slow fade, Baranick says it’s best to track forecast accuracy a month in advance. If your fieldwork start date is April 15, check multiple sources by March 15 to get general ideas. Two weeks out, you’ll get a better idea of any big systems headed toward the Corn Belt that can help predict changes in soil moisture and temperature.
By checking national and local weather forecasts seven days ahead of your target fieldwork date, you’ll see an 80% accurate forecast, which climbs to 90% five days out.
“Absent a strong climate driver, farmers will see local weather influenced by small things, which usually means a fairly active pattern,” Baranick says. “Chances for rain will exist, but perhaps too much for wetter areas or not enough in existing drought areas.”
Drought outlook
The current U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook doesn’t show much relief across the already-dry northwestern Corn Belt. South Dakota, most of Nebraska, and much of the High Plains region are in moderate to extreme drought conditions. The Midwest region shows moderate drought to abnormally dry areas in parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri.
“If this La Niña pattern lasts, we don’t see much precipitation in the northwestern Corn Belt. This area could be facing some major issues once we get towards the more chaotic and hotter part of the year,” Baranick says. “In the central and eastern Corn Belt drought areas, there’s a better opportunity late winter into spring to eliminate or mitigate some of that drought. This area includes parts of Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri.”
Some of that same area along the Ohio Valley could become saturated as La Niña is known for bringing good spring precipitation.
Current temperature outlook concerns involve cold air lingering longer. “It’s tough to say if the cold will be gone by the end of April, where we risk the possibility of a late freeze. We don’t have a lot of confidence yet regarding when the cold will leave,” Baranick says.
The good news
“Fortunately, right now, we believe that current areas of concern in the Corn Belt may not be a concern throughout the entire season,” Baranick says. “We’re just going to play it by ear, which I think is good news.”
More information:
- Current U.S. drought map
- Northern & High Plains drought map
- Midwest drought map
- USDA Ag Weather and Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin
- NOAA ENSO Blog (La Nina/El Nino updates)
- NOAA Global Climate Dashboard
- NOAA: Assessing the U.S. Climate in 2024
Content provided by DTN/The Progressive Farmer
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